tv Wall Street Journal Rpt. ABC December 4, 2011 7:00am-7:30am EST
take a look at what's making news as we head into a new week on wall street. the unemployment rate dropped sharply in the month of november to the lowest level since marar of 2009. e rate now stands the 8.6%. that's's down from 9% in octobe. the economy created 120,000 new jobs, slightly below expectations, but numbers for the previous two months were actually revised upward to show a gain of an additional 72,000 jobs. the lower uneloyment rate could reflect a drop in particicipation among those without jobs. in a surprise move, six of the world's largest central banks ok joint action this week to ease liquidity crisis for europeanan banks. the move by the central banks making it easier and cheaper for those european banks to g u.s. dollars and fund their operations. well, that news sent the market skyrocketing on wednesday. the dow industrial up nearly 500 points on wednesday, the best day since march of 2009. that came on top of a nearly
300-point gain on monday. auto sales continuing to power along. gm up nearly 7% in november. ford saw sales rise 13%. chrysler up a whopping 44%. and toyota saw sales rise 6.7%. overall sales are at the highest rate sce the cash for clunkers program back in 2009. and the parent company of american airlines is filing for bankruptcy protection, hoping to cut its labor and debt costs. the third largest airline says it will continue to operate normally for its passengers while it is in chapter 11. it's all about jobs, the closely watched indicator of the american economy came out on friday. so what does it tell us and what does it mean for the markets? the chief investor at black rock, the largest asset manager in the world. bob,hanks for joining us. >> thank you. >> so you had the jobs numbers out on friday. big number. the unemployment rate comi
down as well, 120,000 jobs created. the unemployment rate now 8.6%. what did that tell you about where we are in this recovery? >> i think it's the capstone, maria, of improving data over the last number of weeks. it's still not great data, as you pointed out, but it's better than it was. i think that shows the u.s. economic recovery continues each quarter this year, stronger than the one before. real gdp, zero handle in the first quarter, 1 in the second, 2 in the third, and my guess is maybe 3.-something in the fourth. >> so what do you think aboutut 2012? do you think 2012 will see signs of life back in this american economy as far as gdp and numbers? >> i think it will come and go. we will still be leveraging as a society, and as a result of that growth, we will be below trend. so when things get down toward zero, we shouldn't get scared
and think we're heading into a recession. unfortunately, when things look good, as they have in the last several weeks, we can't get carried away and extrapolate that on the up side. so i'll use a c conservative gd which is above where we were but below where we were in the first half. >>oes the consumer look strong to you today? black friday numbers, cyber monday numbers. can we rely on consumers to keep this economy going in terms of momentum, or is it another corporate sector? what do you think about the points of the economy right now? >> the consumer doing better than virtually anybody ever thought. ththe key to the consumer in 20 is jobs. if we can continue to have six-figure job growth, that's not great, but it's good enough for us to move our way through. the business side, the investment sector, capital has .
that is leading and contntinueso lead our economy. and then trade is a wild card believing that non-u.s. growth is slowing by and large, that's going to be challenged as well. so that gets me to that 2% as sort of amealy-mouthed number, if you will. >> the markets had a big jump this week after thecoordinated move by central banks around the world to remove liquidity. do you think we're primed for a year-end rally? >> we're in a seasonally strong period. i think we'll get more of that on the back of what you just said. at the minimum, band-aids, and maybe eventually the move toward some sort of temporary solution in europe. that's a good thing because people are very worried about the real down side if europe falls apart. on top of that, what we've been talking about. the economy. it's doing a little better. you put those things together, and i think if these -- i'll
call them relatively low prices on stocks. basically the path of least resistance is up. we should get more of it. >> what about europe? here in london, it certainly feels quiet on the ground in terms of consumption, in terms of people in stores. but going back toothe central banks's move to ease liquidity this week, does it frighten you because they may know something we don't? is it just a move to unenclosing the system? what's your take on europe right now? >> i think it's the latter. i like y your phrase, uneenclcc system. it finally got to germany and that's a problem. finally the central banks said, we need to go something to make sure the economy keeps working. it's a positive, but it's also not a cure. >> the super committee turned out to be not so super, failing at the task of relieving the
deficit. how do you feel abouout that? people are wondering if euro is in worst shape than egypt. do you think europe could come to that spot in a few years? >> if we don't do anything. the clock is ticking, no questionbout it, but we didt have anything out of the super committee, i won't make it a positive, marie a but of course we have the automatic spending cuts getting something done much less than the negative. what i'm worried about is the negative that's going to come if we don't remove the negative stimulus coming on the 31st, the pay cuts and the declining stimulus. >> where should people be putting their money? >> we think they should, especially on weakness, we would be adding to equities in here. we think the european situation is still a prproblem, but the band-a-aids and the ability to
kick the can down the field are increasing, and that's a good thing compared to where wwere. and then the economy here in the u.s., to repeat, doing reasonably well. we want to own some risk assets. i believe technology is the most interesting cyclical sector. but if you want to complement that with some energy, that's fine. but i thihink you also need som defense in your portfolio, and health ce is the favorite defensive sector at this juncture. >> bob, it was wonderful to have you on t the program. thanks so much. >> thank you, maria. >> we'll see you soon. bob dahl joining us from black rock. up next, a look at europe's economy from the heart of the matter. will the constable's leaders be able to bring stability to a constant crisis? and yoe man orders ve guarded the tower of london since the 16th ntury. andbritain's brand for not quite ass long. we'll belly upp for beefeaters,
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was it desperate? both? >> it was a bit of both. i think it was a wake-up call to everybody that this was real serious, that they're getting together to do this. it was also a short-term reprieve. it was kind of put a little more water r in the sea, but the problem was the rocks are still there just under the surface, and,ou know, the ships aren't going too keep getting over the for much longer. so i think the combined rction of markets with some relief, but a rececognition that this demonstrates the structural problems are still not solved. >> so what do you ththink this tells us about the near term a longer term? does i it have implications politically? does the european central bank have to step in? what happens next?
>> i think it is somhing which kind of demands a nexext act, a i i think everybody's focus nown yet another european summit next week.. there's been so many of them, people in some ways have lost confidence that they've proenot produced results. but this is an important one, and long before there's a treaty to insist it, kind of a coordinated world among the 17 eurocountries, then i think the ecb can step in behind that to do moree and then maybe we end the year on a much better note. >> what are you expecting out f that meeting inbrussels, t the u meeting brussels? >> they're the four members of the european union. i think both of those were full members, a those who are in the inner circle of the euro itself, all 17, all sort of
recognize this is sort o the last chance. you can't just dririft into 201 in another series of meetings without any kind o of resolutio or at least clear political sense of direction. so t they can promise that theyl work on a new treaty, they can promise things for the longer term, but what they need to do now, next week,is demonstrate a political commitment to coordinating their economic policies in the meantime, agreeing what they're going to do about their deficits, agreeing to live within a shared macroecononomic framework. if w get that political commitment, then a corner gets turned. >> of course, so much speculation about whether or not the eurozone stays together. do some of the weaker players get forced out like greece? what do you think? do you think they're staged together? >> we're rapidly moving into the situation where the kind of incremental collapse that had been talke about before looked less likely that greece leaves
or maybe even spain. the amount of the stakes have gotten higher and it's hard to see anythingther than the whole eurozone surviving, or a much contracted version of maybe half the countries in it surviving as a sort of north european eurozone. but i think what is also frankly in the cards is it doesn't survive, and, indeed, the fe fend -- tendencies that pull this apart just prevail. we find ourselves suddenly without the currency that a whole generation of european policymakers and financial institutions have come to absolutely count on. >> let me shift gears and ask you about iran. this was a big story this week as well, iran. the united states has not had a diplomatic relationship with that country since 1979.
what'she danger here? were you surprised of the news of the week where the u.s. seems to be getting tougher, saying there will be repercussions if banks do business with iran? >> i think to understa it, one needs to read the middle east press d particularly the israeli press where the speculation and anxiety that there may be an attack planned against the nuclearar facilitie of iran by israel is what is driving this accelerating american european diplomacy, because we're really reaching a fork in the road where either sanctions work and discipline and bring iran to heal, if you like, in getting it to acknowledge it has a nuclear program, a a weapons paced program, and that it will stop developing it. or if that fails, then the hawks in the middle east but also in theu.s. may begin to prevail in e argument.t.
>> mark, thank you for your insisights on these topics. a tonic for the news in this part of the world. ♪ ♪ [ engine revs ] ♪ [ male aouncer ] oh what fun it is to ride. get the mercedes-benz on your wish list at the winter event gog on now. but hurry -- the offer ends january 3rd. [ santa ] ho, ho, ho! or creates another laptop bag, or hires another employee, it's not just good for business it's good for the entire community.
one of the most iconic sights in the city of london are the red outfititted beefeaters, guardians of the town of lon ton, and namesake for a british brand name nearly 200 years old. master distiller of beefeaterss gin since 1920. desmond, wonderful to have you on the program. >> thank you. >> you produduced 360,000 cases
year. tell me about the beefeater process. >> it wass founded by a gentlemn named james barr, who was a pharmacist. he knew how alcohol and flavors worked together. reallyly, there are two things distinguish between one brand of gin and another. one is the recipe. the juniper berries, among the other things. the other is how you actually makeke thegin. he put togegether an extremely good recipe of what was available at that time, and he also gaive the gin a gat me, a london name, beefeater, after the london towers. >> juniper, you said a moment ago, isn't all gin. juniper berries are a must. >> that's what gives it the style and the variety. >> amazing. the formula dates back to the 1800s. so how do you create a consistent product and how do
you switch your ingredients? >> juniper grows wild, it's not even cultivated. so we actually have no control over the one thing we must use. we've just done a juniper assessment. we looked at about 140 samples of wild juniper berries, most of them in italy for the gin trade, and we decided how we were going to put together a blend to create a beefeater style of gin. >> are youou able to create new products at this point? >> yes. that's one of the things in the last four years, was to be invited to produce a present version of beefeater frorom 192. >> what reaction have you had to the newer formulas. >> what we wanted to do was create a new style of gin but
use the traditional methods. we're now in 45 markets around the world, and what we've seen is the super premium and premium gins are growing much faster than the stagnant ones. so people are looking for something more premium. >> where is gin drinking the most popular? >> the great thing is gin is back in fashion. some markets never go out of fashion, but internrnationally, we're seeing a great interest in gin again. yes, in the united states, but here in londonwhere there is a terrrrific cocktail culture growing again. there is a definite mix between gin and cocktails, which is london based, and the new bartenders looking at recipes and giving them a twist.
>> what do you think about their attitudes right now? >> i think it means when people went to drink it, it means more selection about what you drink, more selection about what you eat.t. >> so beefeaters was required in 2005 by the french conglomerate, owner of absolut, the chchiva brands as well. how does that play out, being with other brands? does that change the culture in any way? >> it's fine, to be perfectly honest. first of all, recognizing the prominence of their brands. our london roots of beefeater gin are very importantnt to us. one of the few that are still made in londonon. what they do is give us much better international exposure and a glutton markeket for us.
>> does gin ever go bad? >> one of the reasons distilling was started was to increase the alcohol, take the water out, actually, so it doesn't go bad. that's really hohow spirits beg. >> i see. what's the oldest bottle you've ever drank from. >> of gin? >> yeah. >> we look at how things have changed, and they haven't changed. gin is very much about now. it's a very contemporary drink. i've never kept a box of gin too long, i must say. >> desmond, thank you for being with us. up next on the "wall street journal report." a look at the news this upcoming
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monday they release their index on activity in the services sector.. beginning thursday, the european countries convene in brussels for an important twowo-day meeting. will they agree on a plan to hold the eurozone together? everyby will be watching this on wall street and the globe. friday, find out if the u.s. is importing or exporting more goods with the international trade balance out. and e latest reading of the consumer sentiment also out on friday. that will do it for us today. thanks so much for joiningme. my guest next week, jerry thorpe. have a great week, everybody. i'll see you back in